Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Satellite imagery shows Odalys is still a powerful major hurricane, though the satellite presentation is not quite as impressive as earlier today. The ragged eye of Odalys is surrounded by a ring of deep convection with cold cloud tops of -65 to -75 deg C. Earlier WSF-M passive microwave imagery from 1437 UTC showed a closed ring in the 37 GHz channel, while the 89 GHz image indicated the mid-level eyewall was open to the southwest. The latest Dvorak classification from TAFB was a 5.5/6.0, while recent AiDT, D-MINT, and D-PRINT estimates have fallen to around 105 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 110 kt. The wind radii for Odalys were adjusted based on recent RCM-1 synthetic aperture radar data. Odalys is moving slowly north-northeastward (030/4 kt) within the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to move northward during the next day or two as the aforementioned trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific. By Monday, Odalys is forecast to slow down and turn abruptly to the east and southeast as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest track guidance shows a sharper turn than the previous cycle in the 60-96 h time frame, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to reflect this trend. Overall, the NHC forecast remains close to the skillful HCCA aid. Southwesterly shear is expected to markedly increase over the next couple of days, while Odalys' forecast track should take the system over cooler waters by Sunday. As a result, a faster weakening trend is forecast over the weekend, with Odalys likely to lose organized convection and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in 48-60 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and lies slightly above the HCCA and IVCN multi-model aids. Distant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.3N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.0N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/1800Z 21.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 19.9N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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