Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250255 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Recent satellite imagery continues to show a ragged eye feature embedded within an area of increased deep convection, with cloud-top temperatures near -80 C mainly north and west of the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB came in at T 5.0/90 kt, with UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates ranging from 85-112 kt. Using a bled of this data, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/8 kt. Odalys is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models generally agree that the hurricane should gradually turn toward the northeast and north over the next couple of days. As the hurricane begins its northward turn, forecast confidence in the track decreases. The system is expected to weaken and become increasingly shallow, making it susceptible to steering from lower-level winds while potentially interacting with the outer circulation of Hurricane Polo. Consequently, there is considerable spread in model guidance. However, the general consensus is for a slower forward speed and a southward component of motion after day 3. The updated NHC track forecast closely follows the previous advisory and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance. In the near term, some intensity fluctuations are possible as the improved structure of Odalys could allow for additional strengthening despite moderate shear and the potential for intrusion of drier air from the west. Thereafter, guidance suggests a faster rate of weakening after 36 h as the environment becomes more stable with the increase of vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air, along with decreasing SSTs. These conditions will likely make it difficult for Odalys to sustain organized convection later this weekend, and the updated forecast shows Odalys as a post-tropical cyclone at 72 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. Moisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance into the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.9N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 21.9N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/0000Z 21.7N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 20.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pierce/Kelly
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