Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051439 TCDEP5 Hurricane Octave Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025 Octave has become better organized since the previous advisory, with banded convection becoming more prominent on the east side of the center. A 05/1008 UTC AMSR2 pass showed an eye on microwave imagery. Some earlier GOES-18 images from around 1100-1200 UTC showed a possible eye, but deep, banded convection has covered it up since that time. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have risen to the 60-75 kt range, while the TAFB Dvorak estimate remains T-4.0/65 kt. Based on the aforementioned intensity estimates, as well as the improved inner-core organization as noted on microwave images, Octave's initial intensity is increased to 70 kt, making it the ninth hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane season. Octave appears to be drifting slowly northeastward, or 045 degrees at 3 kt. A turn toward the east at a slightly faster forward speed is expected Monday as the cyclone is pushed in that direction by an upper-level trough to its northwest. By early Tuesday, the main weather feature affecting Octave's track will likely be a large and powerful Priscilla, which should cause Octave to turn toward the east-southeast. By Wednesday, models are in agreement that Octave should be located south of Priscilla. Once Octave gets southeast of Priscilla, an acceleration toward the northeast is expected. The new NHC track forecast takes Octave a bit faster toward the east, but not quite as fast as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model. The official forecast lies a bit south of the latest Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. Octave is currently moving through sea-surface temperatures between 26 and 27 degrees C, and it is forecast to remain over similar water temperatures for the remainder of its lifetime. The shear is expected to remain fairly low for another 24-36 h. A decent number of typically reliable intensity models are showing weakening, especially in the 12 to 36 hour period, so confidence is not very high as to whether Octave could strengthen slightly, maintain its intensity, or weaken during the next day or so. The new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one (mainly due to the stronger initial intensity), and is near the higher end of the guidance over the first day. By 36 h, increasing easterly shear, partially the result of the outflow from Priscilla, is expected to lead to weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope from 36 h onward. Octave is forecast to dissipate in 4 to 5 days as it becomes absorbed by the larger circulation of Priscilla, and the models are in pretty good agreement on this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.1N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 15.3N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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