Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
000 WTPA42 PHFO 290851 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 35 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 Hurricane Nolo remains a 100 kt major hurricane for now, in agreement with the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates. The cyclone continues to endure moderate to strong vertical wind shear, a consequence of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough located to its northwest. An RCM-3 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) overpass from around 0455 UTC informed the present analysis of the wind radii and provided a helpful center fix. The cyclone is now moving to the north-northwest at 330/13 kt. A more northward motion is expected through Tuesday in response to the mid- to upper-level trough. By Wednesday, Nolo is forecast to slow down dramatically as it interacts with and ultimately merges with the trough. Significant along-track uncertainty remains beyond 36 hr. The differences in forward motion depend largely on how quick Nolo completes the merger with the trough and the strength of a mid-level ridge that will build to the northwest. By the latter part of this week, the mid-level ridge should steer the system generally westward and nearly parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. The track forecast blends the previous one toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile these many complicated steering features. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even further, and this should continue to ventilate Nolo with dry and stable air over the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast shows Nolo weakening to a tropical storm by 48 hr, though this could happen sooner. Beyond 60 hr, Nolo is forecast to re-intensify as the vertical wind shear subsides, but dry mid-level atmospheric conditions could limit the pace and magnitude of intensification. The intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance envelope at 12 hr due to recent trends in infrared satellite imagery, and after that time lies within the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.0N 164.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.3N 164.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.5N 164.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 22.7N 164.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 165.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 22.7N 166.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 23.1N 167.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 23.4N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 24.1N 174.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Mahoney
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