Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
595 WTPA42 PHFO 290244 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 34 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 Hurricane Nolo is being disrupted by strong vertical wind shear. The GPM GMI microwave imagery received earlier today showed some tilt between the low- and mid-level vortex, in addition to erosion in portions of the southern eyewall. The satellite presentation on Nolo this evening shows evidence of this disrupted inner core, with the eye filling in on both visible and infrared imagery. Subjective intensity estimates from PHFO and PGTW and the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 110-127 kt. Based on the quick deterioration of the cyclone on satellite imagery, the intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt. The current forward motion of the hurricane is 315/11 kt, as the cyclone continues to turn in response to an upper level trough located to its northwest. A general northward motion is expected through tomorrow. Thereafter, the upper level trough is expected to merge with the hurricane. This will dramatically slow Nolo's forward motion as it approaches the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. Later this week, a ridge is forecast to build northwest of Nolo and begin to steer the system westward and nearly parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the monument. The track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, follows the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile the many complicated steering features. The new intensity forecast shows a faster pace of weakening than the previous forecast, and is nudged toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even more through 72 hr, which could cause Nolo to weaken to tropical storm strength during that time. Beyond 72 hr, the shear is forecast to subside, and Nolo could re-intensify at a gradual pace due to dry mid-level atmospheric conditions. The intensity forecast is within the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 20.2N 164.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.9N 164.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 22.6N 164.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.7N 164.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 22.8N 166.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 23.4N 167.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 23.8N 172.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Mahoney
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