Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026
000 WTPA42 PHFO 282049 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 Westerly wind shear and increasing mid-level dry air are beginning to take a toll on Nolo’s structure this morning. Recent visible and infrared satellite imagery show a sharp gradient along the western side of the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye, while cloud tops are warming just east of the increasingly ragged eye. In addition, recent GPM GMI microwave imagery suggests that the southeastern portion of the eyewall may be beginning to open up. Recent subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have also decreased slightly, ranging from 123-127 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory. Nolo is beginning to turn toward the northwest as it moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north on Tuesday as an intensifying upper-level low approaches from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more complex by midweek, as the strength and track of this low will play a significant role in determining Nolo’s subsequent motion. A stronger low would likely be less progressive and pull Nolo farther north, while a weaker and more transient low would favor a faster turn toward the west. Recent model guidance has trended toward the latter solution, and this trend is reflected in the updated forecast. The official NHC track forecast has therefore been adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and is slightly slower after 36 h, bringing it closer toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance. A gradual weakening trend is expected over the next day or so as Nolo encounters increasing westerly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. Beyond 24 h, the approaching upper-level low is expected to produce significantly stronger shear, likely resulting in more rapid weakening. Nolo could briefly fall below hurricane strength around the middle of this week. Thereafter, as the upper-level cyclone moves away from Nolo and its influence diminishes, increasingly favorable upper-level winds and warmer waters could support some restrengthening. The latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the model intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 17.7N 163.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.0N 163.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 164.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 164.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.4N 164.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 22.5N 164.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 22.7N 165.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 23.2N 167.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 23.8N 171.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams
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