Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026
000 WTPA42 PHFO 280849 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Nolo has continued to intensify, with a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast of very cold cloud tops surrounding the 30 n mi diameter eye. The eye temperatures have warmed to as much as 21 deg C. The advisory intensity is set at 135 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO Honolulu and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants of the hurricane. Geostationary and microwave imagery show that Nolo continues to lack outer convective banding features, and is therefore maintaining the characteristics of an annular hurricane. Nolo continues to move west-northwestward at around 290/10 kt while being steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-tropospheric ridge. A mid- to upper-level cyclone located about 10 degrees to the northwest of the hurricane is expected to induce a turn toward the northwest and north within the next 36 hours. Then, Nolo should decelerate and turn westward while moving around the circulation of the cyclone and merging with it. A mid-level ridge building to the northwest of Nolo should eventually cause it to turn westward late in the forecast period. The official track forecast is very similar to the one from the previous advisory, and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind guidance. The hurricane has been situated in an environment that is quite conducive for strengthening, with low vertical wind shear and sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures. This regime should persist for at least the next 12 hours or so. However, the global models indicate that vertical shear over Nolo should increase substantially by Tuesday. Therefore, the hurricane should begin weakening within 24 hours or so. Nonetheless, Nolo's annular structure could result in a slower rate of weakening than seen in typical hurricanes. In 4-5 days, the models suggest a more favorable upper-level flow pattern, which could result in some re-strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains at the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 16.5N 161.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 17.5N 162.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 19.2N 163.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.0N 163.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 22.4N 163.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 22.8N 163.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 23.0N 164.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 23.6N 166.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 24.0N 169.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Source link