Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026
600 WTPA44 PHFO 020237 TCDCP4 Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 23 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026 Lowell's satellite presentation continues to improve, characteristic of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. Deep, cold convection is wrapping around a fluctuating eye on infrared and visible satellite imagery. Over the past few hours, lightning activity has also increased within the eyewall. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to rise as they attempt to catch up with the ongoing rapid intensification. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from HFO was T5.5, but was constrained, with a Data-T of 6.0/115 kt. Based on these estimates and the continued improving satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory. Lowell remains within a favorable environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The system is likely to continue strengthening and is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. However, fluctuations in intensity are possible due to internal structural changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles. Based on current conditions and recent trends, the official NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance suite. The initial motion is westward, or 275/9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue throughout much of the forecast period as Lowell is steered by a mid-level ridge located to the north. The official track forecast has once again been adjusted slightly southward during this time frame, trending closer to the HCCA and GDMI track aids. Toward the end of the forecast period, track uncertainty increases. An upper-level trough approaching from the west is forecast to move north of the Hawaiian Islands, weakening the aforementioned ridge. This evolution will cause Lowell to decelerate and begin turning toward the northwest or north late in the period. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor Lowell's progress. Key Messages: 1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.5N 151.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.5N 152.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 154.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 13.9N 156.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 14.0N 158.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 14.2N 159.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 161.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 14.5N 163.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 15.6N 164.4W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Source link