Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 30 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 301439 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 500 AM HST Thu Jul 30 2026 Genevieve is feeling the effects of cooler SSTs and relatively dry mid-level air this morning. Infrared satellite presentation is showing warming cloud tops east of the center, and the deepest convection is displaced to the south and west. However, an earlier GMI microwave pass showed a compact, fully intact and closed circulation, though the eye is becoming ragged and lopsided. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are slowly declining and range from 61-69 kt, while the latest objective estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt. The intensity for this advisory is lowered to 70 kt. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at a faster pace near 13 kt, and this motion is expected to continue into this weekend as ridging builds to the north. By the latter half of the weekend, Genevieve is forecast to turn toward the northwest then north-northwest as a mid-level trough develops to the northwest and helps steer the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory, and remains in the middle of the consensus guidance envelope, nearest to HCCA and the Google DeepMind. Genevieve is moving into increasingly cool waters of less than 26C, which will be the main factor leading to gradual weakening. In addition, drier mid-level air will impact the system over the coming days, and the latest NHC forecast has been adjusted downward over the next 36 h, showing Genevieve falling below hurricane strength later today. During the upcoming weekend, the cyclone may struggle to produce organized convection due to persistent dry air entrainment and a more stable environment, and the system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 h. The latest NHC forecast intensity lies near the middle of the intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 20.6N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 21.7N 128.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 23.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 24.2N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 25.1N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 03/1200Z 27.2N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1200Z 30.2N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Adams/Beven
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