Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300243 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 500 PM HST Wed Jul 29 2026 Genevieve appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being. Strong convection has been firing near the estimated center position, although there is no eye evident on geostationary imagery. The cloud pattern is quite symmetric and upper-level outflow remains well defined over the hurricane. The current intensity estimate is held at 85 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates. Genevieve continues to move toward the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of about 290/8 kt. This general direction of motion is likely to continue over the next several days while the cyclone is steered by the flow on the southwestern periphery of a strong mid-level high pressure area extending from the southwestern United States into the eastern North Pacific. Some increase in Genevieve's forward speed is expected during the next 1-3 days as the mid-level ridge builds westward. Late in the forecast period, a trough in the vicinity of 145W should induce a turn to the right. The official track forecast is close to the simple dynamical model consensus, TVCN, and is also very similar to the previous NHC prediction. During the forecast period, sea surface temperatures are expected to gradually cool beneath the cyclone while it continues west-northwestward. Vertical wind shear is likely to increase somewhat and Genevieve will be moving through an increasingly dry air mass. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to weaken and drop below hurricane strength in a day or so. By the weekend, deep convection associated with the system will probably diminish and result in Genevieve degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast follows the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 19.6N 120.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 20.1N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 20.8N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 21.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.3N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 23.1N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 23.9N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 25.8N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 04/0000Z 28.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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