Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 291438 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2026 Genevieve is feeling the impacts of moderate northwesterly shear and mid-level dry air this morning. In addition, an earlier AMSR-2 microwave satellite pass indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle had started early this morning, and a new eyewall is becoming evident on infrared and first light visible satellite imagery. As a result of this process, warming cloud tops are noted to the south and west of the eye, and new convection on the north and east side are leading to colder cloud tops less than -70 C. Objective satellite estimates range from 81-99 kt, and the latest TAFB estimate was 5.5/102 kt. The initial intensity is set at a potentially generous 100 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 7 kt, wedged between a strong mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico and weak ridging to the northwest. This general motion and a slight increase in forward speed is forecast through the rest of this week into this weekend as the aforementioned mid-level ridge expands westward into the eastern Pacific. Later this weekend, Genevieve will turn toward the northwest then north-northwest ahead of an upper-level low developing northwest of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and falls between the latest corrected (HCCA) and simple (TVCN) consensus aids. The eyewall replacement cycle has led to the weakening of Genevieve this morning. Further weakening is expected through tonight as the hurricane experiences moderate northwesterly shear. On Thursday, Genevieve is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and move into an increasingly dry mid-level environment into this weekend, supporting additional weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted further downward during the next 48 h, and still remains on the higher end of the consensus guidance. Genevieve is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by Friday and become post-tropical on Saturday, when the system may struggle to produce organized convection. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.8N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 19.2N 120.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 19.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 20.6N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 21.4N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 22.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 23.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 24.7N 139.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/1200Z 26.9N 143.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Adams/Beven
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