Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026
199 WTPZ42 KNHC 280236 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 800 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 Genevieve continues to produce deep convection, but with a more cloud-filled, circular eye that is cooler than it has been over the past 24 hours. Over the last several hours, convection has been warming and thinning along the western eyewall. There are also early signs that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting, marked by two deep convective bands within the eastern portion of the inner core. The latest objective intensity aids from UW-CIMSS range from 111 to 127 kt, while the most recent TAFB subjective CI Dvorak estimate is T6.5/127 kt. Given recent satellite trends and these latest estimates, the initial intensity has been set at 125 kt for this advisory, although this may be generous. The initial motion is estimated at 305/10 kt. Genevieve is currently being steered northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. In 24 to 48 h, this ridge is forecast to weaken, resulting in a slightly slower forward motion through the middle of the forecast period. Toward the end of the foreast period, another ridge over the eastern North Pacific is forecast to build to the northwest of the system, allowing a faster west-northwestward motion to resume. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous in the short term, with a slight nudge to the left in the extended, and lies close to the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Genevieve continues to experience fluctuations in deep convection within the eyewall this evening, a trend that is likely to continue over the next day or so, along with a possible eyewall replacement cycle that could be starting now. In about two days, the environment will become increasingly unfavorable as the system moves into a drier, more stable mid-level airmass and over cooler SSTs along the forecast track. Once the system crosses the 26C isotherm near 20N, a faster rate of weakening will ensue. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for a steady weakening trend, followed by a faster rate of weakening late this week and into the weekend. Genevieve is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by 120 h, as model-simulated satellite imagery shows the system devoid of deep convection by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.1N 114.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 17.8N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 18.4N 117.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 20.2N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 21.1N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 22.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 24.1N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kelly
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