Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 272050 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 After some warming of the eyewall cloud top temperatures this morning, the infrared satellite presentation of Major Hurricane Genevieve has improved over the past couple of hours, with colder cloud tops wrapping around the western side of the clear, symmetric, and very warm eye. It is possible Genevieve could soon undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, though there have been no recent microwave images to definitively determine whether one is underway. The latest subjective intensity estimates range from 120-130 kt, with the 1800 UTC estimate from TAFB at 6.5/127 kt. The initial intensity has been set at 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the central United States, and is moving toward the northwest around 310/11 kt. Genevieve is forecast to slow down slightly over the next 48 h or so as the ridge weakens and progresses eastward. A faster west-northwestward motion is expected late this week into this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. Colder cloud tops surrounding the eye indicate some fluctuations in intensity could occur with Genevieve this afternoon. However, as the hurricane moves toward the northwest and west-northwest this week, a steady weakening trend is expected as it encounters cooler waters and gradually drier mid-level relative humidity. By early Thursday, Genevieve is forecast to move north of 20N and encounter waters cooler than 26 C, leading to a faster weakening trend for late this week into this weekend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Genevieve to become post-tropical by 120 h, and this is consistent with current model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 113.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.2N 116.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.7N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.3N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 20.1N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 21.0N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 22.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 24.6N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Adams/Papin
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