Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2026
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 271449 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 800 AM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 After rapidly intensifying over the past 24-36 h, Genevieve's impressive strengthening appears to have ended this morning. The eye remains clear and very warm with temperatures above 20 C, however, the IR satellite presentation is beginning to wane, with cloud top temperatures below -70 C no longer fully wrapping around. It is possible that Genevieve is in the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, as suggested by an earlier GMI pass, and some fluctuations in intensity are expected when this occurs. The 12Z TAFB intensity estimate was 6.5/127 kt, and the latest subjective estimates range from 130-143 kt. Based on these estimates and the slightly less impressive satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory. Genevieve is moving toward the northwest around 11 kt, steered by a strong upper-level ridge centered over the west-central United States. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion and a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days as the ridge axis shifts eastward. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. Genevieve will remain in an environment with warm SSTs near 29 C, low vertical wind shear and favorable upper-level divergence over the next 12 h or so. However, the Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle (MPERC) guidance indicates a 42 percent chance of an eyewall replacement cycle over the next 24 h, and some fluctuations in intensity will be possible if this occurs. As Genevieve moves toward the northwest and west-northwest through midweek, the major hurricane will encounter cooler waters and gradually drier mid-level relative humidity, leading to steady weakening. By 72 h, Genevieve is forecast to move north of 20N and encounter waters cooler than 26 C, leading to a more rapid weakening trend for late this week into this weekend. The latest NHC lies near the middle of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.0N 113.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.8N 114.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.2N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.4N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 22.1N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 23.9N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Adams/Papin
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