132 WTPZ41 KNHC 020252 TCDEP1 Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 800 PM MST Tue Jul 01 2025 After briefly filling, the ragged eye of Flossie has reappeared on geostationary satellite imagery. An SSMIS microwave satellite image from 0133 UTC showed that the northern eyewall was slightly eroded. Since then, infrared satellite observations have shown continuous deep convective bursts in the northeastern quadrant. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range between 90 to 107 kts. The initial intensity is nudged up to 100 kt based on a blend of these estimates. Flossie has about a 12-24 hour window to strengthen in conducive environmental conditions. Thereafter, global models suggest drier air and moderate vertical wind sheer could beginning disrupting the circulation on Wednesday. These conditions should coincide with the storm crossing the 26 degree isotherm and moving over cooler waters which should hasten weakening. Flossie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. Flossie should continue moving west-northwestward or northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next few days. As the system becomes more shallow, it should gradually turn westward in the low-level flow. Only minor changes have been made to the latest official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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