Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has changed little during the past several hours. However, intermittent intrusions of mid-level dry air have begun to erode the deep convection over the northwestern quadrant and eyewall. Despite these fluctuations, Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined eye and well-established upper-level outflow. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 75 to 90 kt. Based on the recent satellite trends and a blend of the available intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto through the forecast period, steering the cyclone generally westward during the next several days. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered through about 96 h, with somewhat greater spread developing thereafter as the system passes just north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus (HCCA) to the north and the ECMWF to the south. Although the current forecast brings Fausto just north of the Hawaiian Islands during the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, the islands remain well within the typical day 4-5 track error envelope, and interests across the state should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane. A gradual weakening trend appears to have begun as intermittent intrusions of mid-level dry air begin to erode Fausto's convective structure. However, the hurricane is expected to remain well organized through much of Saturday while moving over warm waters. Thereafter, progressively cooler sea surface temperatures, a drier surrounding environment, and increasing westerly vertical wind shear by early next week should result in continued weakening. Simulated satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, maintaining a well-defined cyclone through Saturday before gradually eroding the convective structure late this weekend into early next week. By the time Fausto approaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening tropical storm with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the low-level center. The NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands early next week, uncertainty remains regarding its exact track and intensity. The current forecast brings the center just north of the islands, but a track farther south would result in a greater risk of stronger winds and heavier rainfall. Interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto. 2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.8N 135.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 19.1N 136.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.5N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.2N 144.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 20.6N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.0N 149.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 155.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 22.9N 159.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Evans/Pierce
Source link