Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240252 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2026 Since the previous advisory, Hurricane Fausto has strengthened a bit more. The eye is less ragged on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and moderately deep convection continues to surround the center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates all support an initial intensity of 80 kt. The deep-layer ridge north of Fausto continues to steer the hurricane westward at 280/13 kt. This general motion will continue through tonight, and then Fausto will begin a more west-northwestward heading, with the system reaching just north of the Hawaiian Islands at Day 5. There has been little change to the track forecast this cycle, and the updated forecast closely follows the HCCA model consensus aid and Google DeepMind. The current environment around Fausto remains marginal, with SSTs of 26.5-27C, and some mid-level wind shear and dry air attempting and failing to intrude the northwestern part of the core. Given the present structure of the hurricane, the intensity is likely to remain steady through tonight. Thereafter, Fausto will move through a less favorable environment characterized by cooler SSTs (25.5-26C), an increasingly drier air mass, and potentially increasing westerly wind shear. This is reflected in the new intensity forecast, which shows steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There are some solutions within the global and hurricane regional model guidance that suggest a faster pace of weakening than forecast, including the possible degeneration of Fausto into a remnant low while approaching the Hawaiian Islands. To maintain continuity, the NHC forecast continues to show Fausto as a tropical cyclone through the entire 5-day forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Fausto is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 18.3N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.5N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.1N 135.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.6N 137.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 19.8N 140.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.1N 142.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 20.7N 149.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 21.3N 154.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Berg
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