Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
386 WTPZ41 KNHC 230835 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026 Fausto's satellite appearance has become rather ragged since the previous advisory. Proxy-vis and infrared imagery show a ragged eye feature, with much of the convection on the western side of the system eroded by drier air. Cloud tops have started to warm as well. That being said, a 0600 UTC ASCAT-C scatterometer pass showed satellite-derived winds around 58 kt, though given the instrument's undersampling bias, peak winds are likely higher. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 53 to 68 kt, and the CI value from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, although the data-T value did drop to T4.0/65 kt for this advisory. Taking all this into account, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 70 kt, although that could be generous given the degrading satellite appearance. The system has started to increase in forward speed and is moving at an estimated motion of 285/10 kt. Fausto should continue to move west-northwestward to westward along the southern edge of a strengthening ridge to the north of the system. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement through day 3. Beyond that period, there is increasing along-track spread, with the GDMI and HCCA guidance farther south and much faster than the rest of the model guidance, with the GFS being the slowest and farther north. The difference is about 300 n mi between the GFS and GDMI solutions. The official NHC forecast continues to trend toward the faster HCCA corrected-consensus and GDMI model solutions. Fausto will remain in a low-shear environment, tracking parallel to the 26C–27C isotherms. The primary inhibiting factor will be the dry air that lies ahead, with mid-level relative humidity values dropping below 50 percent in 2–3 days. The system has already been periodically ingesting dry air from the north and west over the last day or so. This will lead to a gradual weakening trend, and the intensity forecast is highly sensitive to how well Fausto can fend off dry air from intruding into the inner core. The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening throughout the period, although fluctuations in intensity are possible. This forecast lies near the higher end of the model guidance, as some models move the system farther north and weaken it more quickly. It should be noted any northward track deviations would cause Fausto to weaken even faster than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.8N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 18.3N 128.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.6N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 18.8N 134.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 19.1N 136.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.5N 139.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 19.8N 144.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Source link