Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2026 Fausto has not changed much over the past several hours. Although the hurricane is maintaining a partial inner core, intrusions of dry air continue to disrupt it from closing off. That dry air has also wrapped into the outer portion of the circulation, causing the hurricane to have a ragged appearance. There is a wide range in the latest satellite estimates, but based on a combination of the data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. It is possible that this estimate is a little generous. A recent ASCAT-B pass was helpful in estimating the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. The hurricane is still moving slowly to the west-northwest at 6 kt. The global models suggest that ridging should strengthen and remain established north of the system through early next week. As a result, Fausto is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at a faster pace during the next several days. Despite the model agreement on the overall steering pattern, there is still a notable amount of spread at days 4 and 5. The NHC track forecast remains on the fast and south sides of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the typically most skillful aids, HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN. This forecast is quite similar to the previous one. Fausto has a day or two left to strengthen, but given the dry air in the nearby environment, only modest intensification seems likely. In a couple of days, progressively cooler waters should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a gradual decay. Fausto is expected to fall below hurricane strength by the end of the weekend when it will likely move into a region of westerly shear over the central Pacific. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward, and still lies at the high end of the latest model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 17.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.5N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 17.9N 126.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 18.2N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.4N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 18.7N 134.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.0N 136.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 19.7N 141.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 20.4N 146.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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