459 WTPZ45 KNHC 190544 TCDEP5 Hurricane Erick Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 1200 AM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 This is a special advisory mainly to update the intensity of Erick. After an earlier eyewall replacement, satellite images indicate very deep convection is wrapping around the eye of the hurricane. Using a blend of objective ADT Dvorak estimates and SATCON values from UW/CIMSS yields a current intensity estimate of 125 kt, which is used for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next couple of hours, although the interaction with land should halt the intensification process. Erick will weaken rapidly after making landfall. A slight leftward adjustment was made to the forecast track based on the recent motion, which is now 305/8 kt. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 06Z intermediate advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is now an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and devastating wind damage is likely where the core moves onshore. Weather conditions are already deteriorating in the warning area, and preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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