Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2402

   Mesoscale Discussion 2402
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...Western New Mexico

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 693...

   Valid 222201Z - 230000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 693 continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado
   will be possible over parts of eastern Arizona and western New
   Mexico over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper-level
   trough over California with southwesterly diffluent flow aloft over
   much of the Desert Southwest. The RAP shows a 60 to 80 knot
   mid-level jet moving through western Arizona. There appears to be a
   speed max at 700 mb moving through eastern Arizona, where a cluster
   of strong to severe storms is ongoing. These storms are forming near
   a pocket of moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to
   2500 J/kg range. Near the instability max, RAP forecast soundings
   early this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots with long and
   relatively straight hodographs. This will be favorable for
   supercells with large hail. A tornado will also exist as low-level
   shear increases over the next couple of hours. The severe threat
   will move northeastward into the White Mountains of southwestern New
   Mexico later this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 10/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   32590979 32640907 33000836 33340793 33840780 34440791
               34780817 34920873 34880915 34710955 34111017 33731039
               33551047 33171049 32891035 32741015 32590979 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN