Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2350

   Mesoscale Discussion 2350
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0448 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

   Areas affected...The Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 677...

   Valid 092148Z - 092315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 677 continues.

   SUMMARY...The main tornado threat this evening will be near the
   coast as supercells east of the hurricane core interact with a
   surface warm front.

   DISCUSSION...Hurricane Isaias will make landfall this evening along
   the western FL Panhandle coast (see latest NHC advisories for
   details).  East of the inner hurricane core, broken bands of
   supercells will continue to spread northward into the FL Big Bend. 
   As the hurricane moves northward,  surface warm front will likewise
   make some northward progress, as evidenced by gradual increases in
   surface temperatures/dewpoints into the mid-upper 70s.  These
   surface conditions will contribute to surface-based buoyancy near
   and a little inland from the coast over the next few hours.  The VWP
   from KTLH shows a large, curved hodograph and estimated 0-1 km SRH
   has roughly doubled since 19z with largely streamwise vorticity in
   the low levels.  The greatest tornado threat will be with the broken
   convective bands/supercells moving northward into the FL Big Bend
   and interacting with the zone of strongest low-level shear along the
   warm front.

   Tornado Watch 677 is scheduled to expire at 01z, but will be
   replaced with a new watch by 00-01z.

   ..Thompson.. 10/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29178211 29058244 29378299 29668420 29798490 29908506
               30188503 30288468 30328426 30188368 29988298 29828247
               29598214 29178211 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH