Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2078

   Mesoscale Discussion 2078
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0832 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the southern Nebraska Panhandle into
   northeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612...

   Valid 220132Z - 220300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and very large hail
   continues across parts of the Nebraska Panhandle this evening. The
   severe risk may spread south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 into
   northeastern Colorado, and a downstream watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A robust right-moving supercell has recently
   intensified in the NE Panhandle as it encounters a maximum in
   surface-based buoyancy, driven by a plume of upper 60s dewpoints and
   steep deep-layer lapse rates. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear
   will continue to support this storm with southward extent, posing a
   risk of very large hail (recent reports of baseball-sized hail) and
   severe wind gusts. Given the warm/moist air mass downstream into
   northeast CO, and the potential for storm mergers amid a gradually
   strengthening nocturnal LLJ, an organized cluster could
   persist/spread south of the watch, and trends are being monitored
   for a downstream watch.

   ..Weinman.. 08/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40320342 40790376 41420382 41710358 41830317 41790280
               41460222 40550174 40130182 39830243 39820285 40320342 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN