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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2029

Published Date and Time: 2026-08-18 18:54:00



Mesoscale Discussion 2029
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2029
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

   Areas affected...northeast Iowa...southern Wisconsin...northern
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 595...

   Valid 182229Z - 190030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 595
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW595.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin have taken on a
   more linear/bowing mode over the last hour. The line has produced a
   few instances of damaging wind, with measured gusts up to 61 mph.
   Deep layer flow is largely westerly, which will likely push the line
   eastward across southern Wisconsin through the evening with damaging
   wind becoming the main threat. 

   Watch issuance further south of WW595 remains uncertain. Deep layer
   flow decreases further south, with mid-level cloud cover in place
   and less instability. Additionally, lapse rate profiles are meager.
   A couple of cells have developed further west across far eastern
   Iowa. These may pose some potential for large hail in the short
   term. It remains uncertain that coverage/duration will warrant
   additional watch issuance at this time but this area will be
   monitored.

   ..Thornton.. 08/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43269158 43409092 43629034 43948929 43858813 43738786
               43448767 43188765 42868775 42328788 42148831 41988888
               41958956 42079019 42289090 42469136 42679166 42819174
               43269158 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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