Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1963

   Mesoscale Discussion 1963
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0111 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

   Valid 130611Z - 130715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may undergo further
   organization, with increasing strong to severe surface gusts through
   3-4 AM CDT.  A new severe weather watch will be issued shortly.

   DISCUSSION...An evolving cluster of storms is still not well
   organized, but an MCV approaching the Ainsworth vicinity remains
   well defined, with at least 3-5+ mb 2 hourly surface pressure rises
   now evident within the cold pool spreading across/east of the
   Thedford and Broken Bow vicinities.  Ahead of this perturbation a
   gust to 78 kts has recently been recorded at Broken Bow.

   The evolving convective system is being maintained by forcing for
   ascent associated with warm advection, particularly focused along a
   sharpening baroclinic zone centered near/just below 700 mb.  In the
   presence of at least modest cloud-bearing layer shear, it appears
   that this forcing will develop eastward toward the Missouri River
   between Omaha and Tekamah, through 08-09Z, with a continuing updraft
   inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE.  This
   may be accompanied by further intensification and organization of
   the convective system with increasing potential for strong to severe
   surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 08/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42499950 42649872 42599775 42329656 41559613 40769668
               40819822 40879911 41789891 42499950 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN