Mesoscale Discussion 1914 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Areas affected...Western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562... Valid 110236Z - 110430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail and severe winds will continue as a robust supercell migrates southeast across western South Dakota. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a lone, but intense, supercell has exhibited persistent three-body scatter spikes consistent with very large hail, and has also produced wind gusts of at least 61 mph per recent reports. More recently, the reflectivity core has diminished slightly, and the storm motion has shifted from due south to southeasterly, suggesting a slight weakening of the storm's internal pressure perturbations and overall intensity. However, this cell will continue to reside within an environment very favorable for intense convection (MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg and nearly 50 knots of effective bulk shear as sampled by the 00 UTC UNR and ABR soundings), so some degree of re-intensification appears possible. Additionally, new updraft development is noted on the western flank of the cell, which may also intensify and pose a threat for very large (2 inch) hail and severe gusts. Given the elongated/straight nature of regional wind profiles, the emergence of this new cell hints that cell interactions and cold pool amalgamation may increase over the next couple of hours as the new cell begins to split. This may result in a very gradual transition from a supercellular to a clustered/linear storm mode with an attendant increase in severe wind potential as storms move further south/southeast. A few recent high-res solutions hint at this transition, but confidence in this scenario is somewhat limited at this point due to the isolated nature of the convection. ..Moore.. 08/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 45330296 45560261 45620219 44519963 44069982 43780028 43730096 43780180 43870244 45330296 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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