Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1903

   Mesoscale Discussion 1903
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast CO...far northwest KS...and portions of
   western NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102051Z - 102315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and hail will increase from
   west to east during the next few hours. A watch may be needed
   relatively soon for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving along a
   lee trough extending from the NE Panhandle southward into
   northeastern CO, and storm coverage should continue to increase as a
   subtle midlevel wave approaches the area from the west (per recent
   WV loops). Over the next few hours, this activity will spread
   eastward into a a plume of middle/upper 50s dewpoints and steep
   deep-layer lapse rates, which are contributing to a moderately
   unstable air mass. This, combined with an elongating and mostly
   straight hodograph, should support some convective organization/cell
   splitting. While severe hail will be possible (especially in the
   earlier stages of convective intensification), the primary concern
   will be an increasing risk of severe wind gusts with any clustering
   that occurs. A watch may be needed relatively soon for parts of the
   area.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39600332 40770330 41620325 42140304 42400259 42430206
               42310162 41750126 40630117 39750134 39230174 39130245
               39330309 39600332 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN