Mesoscale Discussion 1888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into northeast
Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southwest Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100207Z - 100400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A localized corridor of severe hail and wind potential may
emerge over the next few hours across southeast Nebraska, northeast
Kansas, and into adjacent portions of northwest Missouri and
southwest Iowa. However, this threat will likely remain sufficiently
isolated to preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Convective trends have been monitored over the past
hour as an isolated thunderstorm developed across far southeast NE
and crossed the MO River. More recently, additional attempts at deep
convection are noted in radar and GOES IR imagery, and appear to be
driven by strengthening isentropic ascent across a warm frontal zone
as the nocturnal jet begins to slowly intensify (0-2 km winds have
been increasing to 30-40 knots in upstream VWPs over the past 30-45
minutes). Despite a somewhat focused zone for initiation, the
placement of this zone within the upper-level ridge axis suggests
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent and deep-layer wind shear is
limited for storm maintenance and/or intensification. The relatively
short lifespan and recent demise of the initial cell crossing the MO
River reflects these mitigating factors, despite an otherwise highly
favorable thermodynamic environment (MUCAPE analyzed upwards of
4000-5000 J/kg).
Over the next few hours, the expectation is for additional
development of isolated cells and perhaps a few clusters to the
north of the surface warm front. Very strong instability will favor
robust updraft development that may pose a threat for isolated large
hail and perhaps strong to severe downbursts. However, given the
buoyancy-driven nature of this convection within a modestly sheared
environment, storm organization and longevity may be limited.
Furthermore, this activity should primarily reside within an MUCIN
minimum co-located with the strongest isentropic ascent. Storm
maintenance out of this corridor seems unlikely, and should
spatially confine the severe threat. Given these limitations, watch
issuance is not anticipated.
..Moore/Mosier.. 08/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41009548 40999452 40759396 40509375 40049369 39769384
39439415 39369496 39069709 39079756 39539796 39979789
41009548
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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