Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Areas affected...Portions of southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052315Z - 060115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms may produce severe gusts across portions of
southern Arizona this evening. A watch is not anticipated, though
trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Terrain-induced thunderstorms are ongoing near the
Mogollon Rim, and new convection is beginning to develop on the
smaller mountain ranges of southern Arizona near and just south of a
large upper ridge. The environment for these storms is characterized
by strong buoyancy (2000+ J/kg per mesoanalysis), steep low-level
lapse rates and a relatively dry boundary layer. Due to the
proximity to the ridge, deep-layer flow is generally weak, though
some modest easterly shear is present near the international border.
Due to the steep low-level lapse rates and dry boundary layer, a few
severe gusts may occur with this activity. Additionally, the modest
shear over the southern part of the region may promote loose
organization of the convection as time progresses, and this
clustering may provide the greatest (though still relatively modest)
risk for severe gust. Some additional development is possible in the
next few hours, though activity is expected to wane throughout the
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Due to the expected sparse
coverage of severe gusts, a watch is not currently anticipated,
though trends will be monitored.
..Supinie/Hart.. 08/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31211020 31271101 31831286 32931296 34441214 34881126
34821072 34160977 33790955 33020923 31730926 31230946
31211020
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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