Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1808

   Mesoscale Discussion 1808
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0944 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Areas affected...southern/eastern Nebraska...adjacent southwestern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535...

   Valid 310244Z - 310445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms is likely to be
   maintained at least several more hours while propagating
   southeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley.  Potential for
   strong to severe surface gusts may still increase further.  Trends
   will continue to be monitored for the possibility of an additional
   downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...Updraft inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer
   moisture content supportive of large CAPE has contributed to the
   maintenance of vigorous thunderstorm development, which continues to
   consolidate a bit along the leading edge of the southeastward
   advancing surface cold pool.  2-hourly surface pressure rises on the
   order of 2-3 mb have been evident in a narrow corridor now
   approaching the Kearney, Hastings and perhaps Columbus vicinities. 
   An MCV remains fairly well-defined as it migrates across and
   east-southeast of the Norfolk vicinity, with 50-60 kt northwesterly
   rear-inflow evident to its southwest.   

   Due to relatively moist profiles with somewhat modest
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, downward mixing of this momentum
   to the surface has been slowed.  However, strong to severe gusts
   reaching the surface could still continue to increase as peak
   convective intensities are maintained at least a few more hours
   while propagating southeastward toward the lower Missouri Valley.

   ..Kerr.. 07/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   41379684 42199662 42159589 41059500 40289578 39829718
               39749886 40269961 41379684 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN