Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1807

   Mesoscale Discussion 1807
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and north-central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534...

   Valid 302347Z - 310145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for sporadic severe wind gusts and isolated
   large hail continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   534.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across western South Dakota has
   formed into a loosely organized cluster over the past 1-2 hours,
   with sporadic reports of severe wind gusts and an isolated report of
   1" hail noted with this activity. A narrow corridor of greater
   MLCAPE collocated with warmer surface temperatures and a local
   minimum in cloud cover exists downstream of this activity, with a
   convective outflow/differential heating boundary located farther to
   the east. This corridor of greater buoyancy will continue to support
   a risk for sporadic severe wind gusts and an instance or two of
   large hail over the next couple of hours as ongoing convection
   progresses east/southeastward. The overall severe risk should then
   gradually subside into the overnight hours as convection encounters
   a less unstable air mass.

   ..Chalmers.. 07/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45370025 45200015 44869996 44589993 44260017 44010043
               43900064 43870093 43860143 43870151 43920223 44080229
               44460220 45000225 45240229 45390231 45580219 45720198
               45820175 45880105 45740055 45560037 45370025 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN