Mesoscale Discussion 1793 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC/VA into the Delmarva region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...530... Valid 290105Z - 290230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527, 530 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, marginally severe hail, and possibly a tornado will continue into late evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening from across parts of central/eastern NC/VA. The 00Z GSO and MHX soundings depict a favorable environment for organized storms, with rich boundary-layer moisture, MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear. Short-term guidance and area VWPs depict increasing flow in the lowest 3 km, with associated low-level theta-e advection potentially supporting an increase in storm coverage from eastern NC into far southeast VA with time this evening. Occasional supercells will continue to be possible into late evening, with an attendant threat of damaging wind, marginal hail, and possibly a tornado. Increasing storm coverage may result in some increase in wind-damage potential with time, with enlarging low-level hodographs continuing to support some tornado potential, if surface-based convection can be maintained. ..Dean.. 07/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 37907562 35287611 34277786 34427837 34997887 36067917 36627871 37907765 38017631 37907562 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source link