Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1769

   Mesoscale Discussion 1769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271958Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts or hail could accompany
   stronger storms this afternoon. The need for a watch remains
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing ahead of
   a surface trough across central IL within a very moist and unstable
   airmass. Strong northwesterly flow aloft is fostering 45+ kt
   effective shear magnitudes, which could support organized
   convection. However, large-scale ascent is nebulous across the area.
   Furthermore, looping visible satellite imagery shows a broadening
   cirrus shield over eastern IL associated with convection further
   east, and possible outflow/gravity waves spreading westward. It is
   uncertain if this may be helping initiate convection or will temper
   more robust development. While the overall thermodynamic/kinematic
   profiles across the area generally would support some severe risk,
   uncertainty is high. Trends will be monitored, and if intensity
   increases, WW 520 and 521 could be expanded westward, or a new watch
   issued if needed.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41008800 40478795 40108837 40028887 40008938 40108989
               40479040 40869041 41018977 41218875 41258823 41008800 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN