Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1763

   Mesoscale Discussion 1763
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Iowa into far northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271749Z - 271945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may materialize through
   mid-afternoon across southern Iowa into far northern Missouri. In
   general, this activity is expected to remain sufficiently weak to
   negate the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually deepening per MRMS VIL
   and echo top imagery over the past hour across southwest to
   south-central IA. This activity appears to be largely driven by
   modest ascent along a weak frontal zone draped across the Plains,
   and is maturing within an environment featuring ample buoyancy
   (MUCAPE of around 3000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer wind shear
   for organized convection based on the KDMX VWP (which sampled a 0-6
   km BWD of just under 25 knots). Given this environment, loosely
   organized convection appears possible and may pose a threat for
   sporadic large hail - most likely 1.25 inch or less. The primary
   modulating factor to overall storm longevity and intensity is
   increasing inhibition with southward extent and a lack of stronger
   synoptic forcing for ascent. Consequently, storms will most likely
   begin to weaken as they track south/southeast (this behavior has
   already been observed with a few leading cells) and will mainly pose
   an isolated/transient severe threat through the afternoon.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41929527 41749319 41639261 41419211 40829147 40539143
               40309158 40259208 40319453 40469490 40749514 41659562
               41859552 41929527 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN