Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1756

   Mesoscale Discussion 1756
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270635Z - 270730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A supercell moving southward near I-95 in central Virginia
   may produce isolated wind damage and small to marginally severe
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues in parts of central Virginia in
   association with a passing shortwave trough. Despite some nocturnal
   cooling, modified observed 00Z soundings from the Mid-Atlantic
   suggest MLCIN is not overly large/prohibitive. A supercell with a
   prominent mid-level mesocyclone continues southward near I-95. With
   the KAKQ VAD showing around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear, this activity
   should be able to persist for another hour or two before the
   shortwave trough moves away from the region. Isolated damaging winds
   and small to marginally severe hail will be possible as this storm
   tracks near the Richmond metro.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37287711 37287729 37337737 37437754 37777777 37997780
               38137775 38177754 38107731 37897718 37587700 37457694
               37347699 37287711 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN