Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1682

   Mesoscale Discussion 1682
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

   Areas affected...northeast Wisconsin into the central U.P. of
   Michigan

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 501...

   Valid 210104Z - 210230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes and large hail continues
   across the watch area.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
   as of 01Z with recent funnel cloud reports with discrete storms over
   Marathon County, WI. The 00Z Green Bay soundings sampled a steep
   lapse rate and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE in excess of
   1500 J/kg. However, some degree of capping was observed in the
   800-700 mb layer, which may be inhibiting storms from fully
   realizing the available instability. Latest objective fields suggest
   that 0-3 km CAPE may be larger in the vicinity of the front (and
   recent funnel cloud reports), where low-level parcel accelerations
   may be stronger. 

   Per the Green Bay observed sounding and current VWP, vertical shear
   remains quite favorable for supercell modes with an attendant large
   hail and tornado risk. Despite modestly strong low-level
   storm-relative inflow, the spatial dimensions of the current storms
   are small, suggesting that perhaps the aforementioned capping may be
   diluting parcel buoyancy. As such, the extent of the tornado threat
   remains uncertain. Large hail will also remain possible with the
   strongest storms.

   ..Mead.. 07/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   44429019 45049000 45598912 45968772 46108722 46228632
               45738643 45098712 44328763 44328846 44429019 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN