Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1669

   Mesoscale Discussion 1669
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern ND/northeast SD into west-central/northwest
   MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

   Valid 200442Z - 200545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A short-term threat for isolated severe hail/wind may
   spread across far northeast South Dakota into west-central
   Minnesota. Additional strong to severe storm development is possible
   into the overnight into eastern North Dakota and northwest
   Minnesota, though coverage and timing remains very uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent and occasionally severe storm cluster is
   approaching the northeast corner of SD as of 0440 UTC. In the short
   term, moderate elevated buoyancy and favorable effective shear (as
   observed earlier in the prefrontal 00Z soundings from BIS and ABR)
   will continue to support some severe wind/hail threat. Longevity of
   this cluster is uncertain due to increasing CINH and generally
   modest large-scale ascent, but some severe threat could accompany
   this cluster as it moves into west-central MN during the early
   overnight hours. 

   Farther north, a conditionally favorable environment remains in
   place across eastern ND into far northwest MN, along/ahead of a cold
   front. Short-term guidance continues to vary considerably regarding
   the timing and coverage (if any) of elevated storm development in
   this area into the overnight hours. Should sustained storms develop
   within this region, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and favorable
   deep-layer shear would support a threat for severe wind and hail.
   With generally weak ascent and only a modest low-level jet response
   anticipated, potential for more than isolated strong to severe storm
   development overnight remains very uncertain. However, watch
   issuance will become possible if trends support development of
   multiple severe storms.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45729560 44859765 44999818 45839955 46289982 46779932
               49029787 49119698 49329505 49189453 48579426 47909438
               45729560 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN