Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1656

   Mesoscale Discussion 1656
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central MT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497...

   Valid 182335Z - 190130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible through
   the evening. Isolated hail also remains possible.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, widely scattered storms are ongoing
   across parts of western MT. In the short term, the severe threat may
   remain rather isolated, with moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rates
   supporting a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. With time,
   as both midlevel flow and storm coverage gradually strengthen over
   the region, one or more outflow-driven clusters may evolve and pose
   an increasing severe-wind threat into this evening. Some severe
   threat may eventually develop north of WW 497, and trends will
   continue to be monitored regarding the need for local watch
   expansion.

   ..Dean.. 07/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45761352 47971301 48971205 49031139 49061025 49020950
               48980903 47650881 46560952 45941010 45511068 45151132
               44971202 45101278 45761352 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN