Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1631

   Mesoscale Discussion 1631
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161130Z - 161330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Brief tornado potential may continue over the next couple
   of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorm activity across south-central
   Texas have included embedded supercell activity that produced
   several transient circulations overnight. This is ongoing within a
   plume of tropical moisture along and near a stationary boundary
   draped across south-central and southern coastal Texas. The
   low-level jet (LLJ) has been steadily increasing over the last few
   hours and appears to be nearing peak, around 30-35 kts from the
   south. This is well sampled from the VAD from DFX where 0-3 km SRH
   is around 250-350 m2/s2. Despite overnight rainfall, MLCAPE around
   500-1500 J/-kg remains in place with dew points in the mid to upper
   70s south of the boundary. With the increase in low-level shear, a
   brief uptick in tornado potential may be possible before decreasing
   as the LLJ decreases through the morning. Given the isolated and
   brief nature of this threat, a watch is not anticipated.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29580097 29820075 30030035 30109977 30119948 29929919
               29609906 29279916 29089996 29050069 29400098 29580097 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH