Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0920 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488... Valid 150220Z - 150315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts will continue with multicellular convection over the next few hours, especially if upscale growth continues. 75+ mph gusts will be possible near the strongest storm cores. DISCUSSION...Supercells have begun to merge over the past hour or so, resulting in multiple severe gusts, including a measured 86 mph per the KMVH AWOS. These storms continue to propagate eastward atop a well-mixed boundary layer, where ample evaporative cooling potential exists (i.e. 85-95 F surface temperatures and 1500+ J/kg DCAPE per 02Z mesoanalysis). Therefore, severe gusts will remain a concern for at least a few more hours, especially if ongoing storms can grow upscale further into a better defined MCS. Given the degree of evaporative cooling potential, 75+ mph gusts are still possible, particularly with the stronger storm cores. ..Squitieri.. 07/15/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46400853 46300933 46510970 46880971 47310922 47600830 47740776 47800621 47660560 47190541 46920584 46580743 46400853 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Source link