Mesoscale Discussion 1616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern New York...Vermont...New
Hampshire and southwest Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142253Z - 150100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential remains evident over parts of New England
through this evening, both with ongoing storms and new convective
development in southern Quebec. The need for a watch is unclear, but
trends are being watched closely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2250 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed a cluster of thunderstorms in northern NH and southwest ME
have remained generally weak. Widespread wildfire smoke and cloud
debris has limited diurnal heating, resulting in lingering
inhibition evident from terrain-induced stable billow clouds over
portions of southern New England. However, just to the south of the
primary baroclinic zone, a much warmer air mass remains relatively
undisturbed this evening. With MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and ample
vertical shear, intensification of the ongoing storms remains
possible if they are able to access the more unstable air mass. A
mix of organized clusters and supercells would present some risk for
all hazards.
Meanwhile, a second cluster of storms is evident over portions of
southern QC, along with more agitated boundary-layer cumulus near
the international border. HRRR guidance continues to show some
intensification/additional development with this cluster through
this evening. This is plausible given the proximity to the warmer
and more unstable air mass along and southeast of the St Lawrence
Valley. The approach of the upper trough and strong mid-level jet
(70+ kt) may also provide enough ascent to overcome the remaining
inhibition in the next couple of hours. However, confidence in the
convective evolution remains very low. All hazards would be possible
if this cluster, or any new development can intensify.
The environment remains conditionally supportive of organized
clusters and supercells with significant severe potential.
Convective trends are being closely monitored, but the need for a WW
remains unclear.
..Lyons/Smith.. 07/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 45357481 45537201 45557132 45017026 44737008 44387004
44007037 43937105 44337389 44537446 44677477 44887493
45357481
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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