Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1595

   Mesoscale Discussion 1595
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0722 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

   Valid 120022Z - 120215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Through 02Z, the greatest threat for severe wind gusts is
   expected to exist across southern Pinal into eastern and central
   parts of Pima County, including the Tucson metropolitan area.

   DISCUSSION...Recent trends in radar data show intensifying storms
   from southeast through northeast of Tucson within a deeply mixed
   boundary layer, characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
   MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, per latest objective analysis. Current
   surface observations immediately downstream from the storms in the
   Tucson vicinity indicate west winds, which are 1) enhancing
   low-level storm-relative inflow, and 2) bolstering deep-layer shear.


   Given the areal increase and recent intensification of storms, the
   likelihood for organized cold pool formation appears to be
   increasing along with the potential for corridors of severe winds
   with gusts of 70-80 mph. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe
   hail are also possible.

   ..Mead.. 07/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31931279 32211306 32451268 33011193 33281120 33351060
               33320979 32660922 31880917 31420949 31321053 31461143
               31841241 31991304 31931279 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN