Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1592

   Mesoscale Discussion 1592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0425 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112125Z - 112330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts is expected to increase
   across the discussion area late this afternoon through evening. A
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate deepening
   cumulus and early thunderstorm development along the Gila and White
   Mountains within the southern periphery of an upper high located
   over UT and CO. The air mass across the lower elevations of southern
   Arizona is hot and somewhat moist with steep low/mid-level lapse
   rates yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Latest short-term model
   guidance indicates the developing storms will increase in coverage
   and intensity over the next 2-3 hours while spreading southwest into
   southeast and south-central AZ within an increasingly unstable
   environment.

   The current KEMX VWP is sampling a belt of enhanced easterly winds
   in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which, combined with the steep low-level
   lapse rates, will support the potential for cold pool organization
   and a related risk for severe wind gusts.

   ..Mead/Thompson.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31851197 32301195 32631149 33061074 33481000 33540965
               33480942 32980916 32300916 31860920 31570955 31461027
               31401094 31611177 31851197 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN