Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1587

   Mesoscale Discussion 1587
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...portions of North Florida and the Florida Panhandle
   into southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111827Z - 112030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will bring a risk for
   occasionally damaging downburst winds through this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery and lighting data
   depict ongoing thunderstorm development along the Gulf Coast sea
   breeze across portions of North Florida. Expectation is for
   thunderstorm coverage to gradually increase along this boundary over
   the next hour or two amid continued diurnal heating. Aided by
   westerly/southwesterly low-to-mid tropospheric flow, storms will
   then progress northeastward into southern Georgia. While deep-layer
   flow and effective shear remain weak (less than 30 kts of flow
   sampled below 200 mb by the 18z JAX observed sounding), moderate
   buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates, and PW exceeding 1.7 inches
   will promote a risk for an outflow dominant storm mode and
   water-loaded downbursts capable of occasional damaging wind gusts
   (generally 45-55 mph with a localized gust to 55-65 mph possible).
   Given the expectation for the severe risk to remain relatively
   isolated and limited in magnitude, watch issuance appears unlikely
   at this time.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30568551 30128545 29818531 29678508 29698475 29758458
               29838439 29918420 29918404 29868388 29628359 29208310
               28958286 28738276 28368265 28048250 27908226 27748177
               27818137 28118100 28428085 28948081 29438100 30298136
               30688140 31138132 31468114 31648111 31978135 32168174
               32268223 32278293 32178342 31978394 31718451 31458499
               31168531 30778543 30568551 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH