Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1583

   Mesoscale Discussion 1583
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1036 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast KS into southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110336Z - 110530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into the
   early overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed in the vicinity of a
   remnant surface boundary from southeast KS into southwest MO. This
   convection is likely somewhat elevated, but rich moisture (with PW
   near 2 inches) and moderate MUCAPE will continue to favor robust
   updrafts into the early overnight hours. Effective shear is
   generally modest (around 25-30 kt), which may tend to limit the
   longevity and intensity of any particular storm. However, localized
   downbursts and isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest
   cells. Storm interactions and gradually increasing low-level warm
   advection may eventually result in one or two loosely organized
   clusters, though the remaining severe threat is currently expected
   to remain rather localized.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38149835 38129477 38029214 37519191 37039188 37069281
               37119514 37119727 37189814 37609829 38149835 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN