Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1580

   Mesoscale Discussion 1580
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...Central/southern MO into southern IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102146Z - 102345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible
   into early evening. Watch issuance is possible, though timing is
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...To the south of a storm cluster moving across northern
   MO, rich low-level moisture and pockets of strong heating have
   resulted in substantial destabilization, with MLCAPE rising into the
   2000-3000 J/kg range. Ascent attendant to a midlevel shortwave
   trough moving across IA/northern MO and modest low-level warm
   advection are expected to result in a general storm-coverage
   increase into this evening across central/southern MO into southern
   IL. However, details remain rather uncertain, due to the presence of
   substantial cloud cover over parts of southern MO. While storm
   development is possible anywhere within this corridor, there may be
   a tendency for initiation along the trailing outflow from the
   northern MO cluster, as well as along the periphery of the southern
   MO cloud deck. 

   Deep-layer shear becomes increasingly modest with southward extent,
   but some increase in 850-700 mb southwesterly flow (already noted in
   the KSGF VWP) may allow for development of one or more
   forward-propagating clusters with a threat of damaging wind and
   isolated hail. Eventual watch issuance is possible for parts of this
   region, though timing remains uncertain.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   36839054 36739121 36529235 37009249 37559275 38089414
               38509448 38629450 38729394 39089095 39499001 39498896
               39298862 38848857 38198848 37318921 36839054 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN