Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1521

   Mesoscale Discussion 1521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT into western ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060636Z - 060830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
   early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning across
   parts of eastern MT, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave
   trough and attendant cold front. While this convection is likely
   somewhat elevated, steep midlevel lapse rates atop relatively rich
   low-level moisture are resulting in MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg (per
   recent objective mesoanalyses), with sufficient effective bulk shear
   for some storm organization. This thermodynamic environment will
   favor some hail threat, especially with any longer-lived
   semi-discrete cells. Low-level nocturnal stabilization may limit the
   severe-wind threat to some extent, but isolated strong to severe
   gusts may still accompany the strongest downdrafts. The isolated
   severe threat may spread into parts of western ND with time early
   this morning.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46520370 46210448 46540510 47760545 48440518 48970431
               49270288 49040226 48410245 46520370 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN