2024-07-03 14:47:05
1720033511
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Mesoscale Discussion 1521 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1521 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast MO...Far Southern IL...Far Western KY...Far Northeast AR...Extreme Northwest TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031845Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from the Ozark Plateau into the Lower OH Valley. Strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are possible, and convective trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows that the outflow associated with antecedent storms currently extends from about 40 miles east-southeast of TBN (in south-central MO) eastward to the MO/KY border vicinity. Southward progress of this boundary has slowed significantly over the past hour, with current indications suggesting that the western portion of this boundary has stalled. Strong heating and low-level moisture advection will likely result in this boundary becoming increasingly diffuse with time, although there is some potential it returns northward as an effective warm front (particularly the western end). Cumulus continues to deepen south of the outflow boundary, where temperatures are now in the low 90s and dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s. These warm and moist conditions are fostering an uncapped environment with moderate to strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Vertical shear is modest, with 0-6 km bulk shear currently around 25 to 30 kt. This may increase somewhat as slightly stronger mid-level flow attendant to a subtle convectively augmented vorticity maximum moves into the region. Current expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase this afternoon, supported by both ascent attendant to the convectively augmented vorticity maximum moving through the central Plains and low-level convergence. Strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts, but the lack of stronger shear will likely limit organization, promoting a predominantly multicellular mode. Even so, scattered coverage of these strong updrafts and resulting potential for damaging gusts may require the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36269294 37139249 37819035 37888841 37138809 36408864 35779189 36269294 |
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