Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1519

   Mesoscale Discussion 1519
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0810 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...Central to northeast Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060110Z - 060315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based storms ongoing across central Montana may see
   some uptick in intensity over the next few hours as they approach a
   regional buoyancy maximum. However, the onset of nocturnal cooling
   and antecedent inhibition downstream cast uncertainty on this
   scenario.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, high-based convection across
   central/south-central MT has experienced an uptick in lightning
   counts indicative of a slight strengthening trend. This may be
   attributable to storms moving into the western periphery of a more
   buoyant air mass where dewpoints are in the low 50s, increasing into
   the low 60s into northeast MT on the western side of a weak cold
   front. Based on mesoanalysis estimates and 00 UTC GGW and BIS RAOBs,
   this moisture is supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000
   J/kg within a relatively narrow corridor. It appears possible that
   further intensification could occur as convection migrates further
   into this air mass. Effective bulk shear values should increase to
   around 40-45 knots as buoyancy profiles and convection deepen,
   resulting in increased organization and an uptick in severe wind
   potential.

   However, analyses also depict increasing MLCIN immediately
   downstream of the ongoing convection, which should increase further
   with the coming onset of nocturnal cooling. Recent HRRR/RRFS
   time-lagged ensemble guidance hints at this potential, but has been
   too aggressive with wind forecasts so far across this region and
   only gives a 30-50% chance for severe gusts through early morning.
   This limits confidence in this scenario; watch issuance seems
   improbable at this time.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   45840729 45720762 45750777 46000792 46530814 46720837
               46830880 46910918 47090961 47340992 47620974 47820922
               47900815 48160667 48740516 48710475 48550441 48250412
               47900409 47450407 46670411 46160442 45840729 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN