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| Mesoscale Discussion 1518 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania into western New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465... Valid 060020Z - 060215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms organizing across southeast Pennsylvania will likely pose a relatively higher damaging wind threat downstream into west-central New Jersey over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity imagery from KDIX and KCCX shows steady clustering of convection between Harrisburg and Lancaster, PA. Although no coherent cold pool is yet evident in velocity data, the general trend favors the development of a more cohesive cold pool over the next hour. Once this occurs, cold-pool-driven propagation should become more pronounced with an attendant uptick in strong/severe winds. Downstream, a pocket of around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely persists across southeast PA into west-central NJ where temperatures remain in the low 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. However, the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling will likely begin to diminish low-level lapse rates and increase near-surface inhibition, which will act as modulating factors to overall wind magnitudes. Given these considerations, the expectation over the next 1-3 hours is that this cluster will feature some degree of loose organization with an increasing threat for damaging winds within a focused corridor downstream, though wind speeds will most likely only reach into the 45-60 mph range. ..Moore.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39737712 39977680 40397667 40567646 40427493 40217483 39977478 39747482 39557494 39437520 39417549 39527674 39577702 39737712 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH |
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